Forecast: Brighter season for N.M. retailers

LAS CRUCES (KRQE) - The Christmas season may be merry for New Mexico retailers this season, according to research by a New Mexico State University marketing expert.

Holiday sales can be expected to rise 4.4 percent over last year, said Bruce Huhmann, associate professor of marketing.

"For certain retailers, holiday sales during these three months represent 40 percent or more of annual sales," Huhmann said in a statement released by NMSU.  "The long weekend after Thanksgiving alone typically rings up 9 percent to 10 percent of annual retail sales.

"Holiday sales also produce one-third of retail industry profits."

Huhmann also is forecasting 5 percent growth in national sales for the fourth quarter, a prediction that is more optimistic than some other forecasters.

He cites a number of factors to support his numbers:

• The traditional Black Friday-Christmas Eve sales season this year is 32 days, longer than usual
• Employment continues to rise, albeit slowly
• Consumers' perceived wealth is improving fueled in part by a stronger stock market
• Consumer confidence and optimism are rising

And while retailers rang up stronger back-to-school sales this year, Huhmann said consumers are still in their recession mindset of waiting for the best deal.

Additional information on Huhmann's research and his observations on economic and political forces currently at play can be found in a report by Janet Perez of the NMSU News Center .